Two of the top three teams in the Eastern Conference of Major League Soccer (MLS) will square off on Saturday as Inter Miami host the New York Red Bulls at Chase Stadium.
A 4-1 victory over the New England Revolution has the Herons at the top of the Supporters Shield standings with 21 points, four more than the Red Bulls, who are third in the conference following a 1-1 draw with the Vancouver Whitecaps.
Match preview
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It may not be the way Tata Martino has drawn it up, but Miami have won three successive MLS encounters, giving them a three-point cushion atop the Eastern Conference table.
The Herons have had to react to an early setback more often than not over this campaign, conceding within the opening six minutes in each of their previous three encounters but finding a way to win each time.
To this stage of the 2024 MLS season Inter Miami have conceded first in nine of their 11 encounters but have picked up 14 points domestically when doing so.
In 2024, the Herons have been, as advertised, an attacking machine, scoring a league-high 26 goals while also having some glaring holes at the back, tied for the third-most goals conceded in the Eastern Conference (16).
So far this year, they have been at their best defensively when playing in front of their home fans, conceding a goal or fewer in four of six MLS matches at Chase Stadium, where they have posted their only two clean sheets domestically this year.
They are winless in their last three meetings versus New York-based clubs in this competition, with their previous victory against the Red Bulls occurring in August 2023 at Red Bull Arena.
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The New York Red Bulls have evolved into a side with much less pressing and a lower line than we are accustomed to seeing.
That tweak under Sandro Schwarz has seen them playing more comfortably on the ball and being much more successful in front of goal, netting 14 times in 10 domestic affairs this year, twice as many as they had at this stage of the 2023 campaign.
New York have claimed six points domestically in 2024 when conceding the opening goal but have also dropped four points when drawing first blood.
The Red Bulls have only suffered one defeat away from home in MLS this season (3-0 at the Columbus Crew) and have won two contests outside Red Bull Arena, half of their total from their 2023 regular season.
With 17 points after 10 domestic affairs this year, New York are well above where they were at this stage last season, when they had a mere nine points.
They have won three of their four away matches against the Herons in Fort Lauderdale, outscoring them 9-1 in those three victories, while beating Miami by three or more goals on three occasions all-time, including a 4-0 triumph earlier this season.
Team News
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Miami were missing Jordi Alba and Serhiy Kryvtsov against New England with hamstring strains, while Federico Redondo remains sidelined due to an LCL injury.
Robbie Robinson sat out last week because of a sore knee, Ian Fray is still recovering from a torn ACL, while Facundo Farias is out for the season for that same reason.
Lionel Messi leads the Golden Boot race, scoring his eighth and ninth of the campaign last week while also collecting an assist, giving him 16 goal contributions in seven encounters, the most by a single player in MLS history in their first seven regular season contests, surpassing Carlos Vela and Thierry Henry (13).
The other Miami goals last week came courtesy of Benjamin Cremaschi and Luis Suarez, the first and seventh of the campaign for each, respectively.
A 74th-minute red card versus the Whitecaps means that the Red Bulls will not have Noah Eile available this weekend, Ronald Donkor sat out of that match with a sore hip and Peter Stroud is still recovering from ankle surgery.
Roald Mitchell and Serge Ngoma were unavailable in their previous encounter with knee injuries, while Cory Burke remains doubtful because of a nagging groin issue.
Lewis Morgan notched his team-leading seventh of the campaign to give his side a point against the Whitecaps, putting him at seven for the season, five more than Emil Forsberg.
Inter Miami possible starting lineup:
Callender; Weigandt, Aviles, Freire, Negri; Rojas, Busquets, Ruiz; Messi, Suarez, Taylor
New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup:
Coronel; D. Nealis, S. Nealis, O'Connor, Tolkin; Harper, Edelman, Carmona, Forsberg; Vanzeir, Morgan
We say: Inter Miami 4-2 New York Red Bulls
The Red Bulls embarrassed Miami when they squared off in March, and that will likely be in the back of the minds of the Herons when they take the field on Saturday, and we believe that added motivation will power Messi and company to another big victory.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
