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UEFA Conference League
Larne
Conference League | League Stage
Oct 24, 2024 at 5.45pm UK
Windsor Park
Shamrock Rovers

Larne
1 - 4
Shamrock

Gallagher (48')
Graham (27'), Cosgrove (37')
FT(HT: 0-3)
Honohan (3'), Kenny (24'), Cosgrove (30' og.), Burke (54')
Lopes (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Conference League clash between Larne and Shamrock Rovers, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Larne

All competitions
Conference League
Last Game: Larne 1-1 Crusaders
Saturday, October 19 at 3pm in NIFL Premiership

Shamrock Rovers

All competitions
Conference League
Last Game: Drogheda 0-1 Shamrock
Friday, October 18 at 7.45pm in League of Ireland Premier

We said: Larne 1-2 Shamrock Rovers

 Given the atmosphere that will be produced on Thursday evening, we expect it to close the gap when it comes to the quality in each side. Nevertheless, Shamrock should still be able to get the job done, giving them a foothold in their bid to qualify for the last 24. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Larne win with a probability of 46.96%. A win for Shamrock Rovers had a probability of 27.62% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Larne win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.28%) and 2-0 (8.31%). The likeliest Shamrock Rovers win was 0-1 (7.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Shamrock Rovers would win this match.

Result
LarneDrawShamrock Rovers
46.96% (0.057000000000002 0.06) 25.41% (-0.014999999999997 -0.01) 27.62% (-0.038 -0.04)
Both teams to score 52.78% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.47% (0.038999999999994 0.04)50.53% (-0.035999999999994 -0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.55% (0.033999999999999 0.03)72.45% (-0.031999999999996 -0.03)
Larne Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.48% (0.042000000000002 0.04)21.52% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.42% (0.063000000000002 0.06)54.58% (-0.058999999999997 -0.06)
Shamrock Rovers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.26% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)32.74% (0.012 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.7% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)69.3% (0.013999999999996 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Larne 46.96%
    Shamrock Rovers 27.62%
    Draw 25.41%
LarneDrawShamrock Rovers
1-0 @ 10.82%
2-1 @ 9.28% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
2-0 @ 8.31% (0.0070000000000014 0.01)
3-1 @ 4.75% (0.008 0.01)
3-0 @ 4.26% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.65% (0.004 0)
4-1 @ 1.83% (0.0049999999999999 0)
4-0 @ 1.64% (0.006 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.02% (0.0029999999999999 0)
Other @ 2.4%
Total : 46.96%
1-1 @ 12.08% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 7.05% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-2 @ 5.18% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-3 @ 0.99% (0.001 0)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 25.41%
0-1 @ 7.87% (-0.014 -0.01)
1-2 @ 6.75% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
0-2 @ 4.39% (-0.0089999999999995 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.51% (-0.0029999999999997 -0)
2-3 @ 1.93%
0-3 @ 1.64% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 2.54%
Total : 27.62%

How you voted: Larne vs Shamrock

Larne
23.5%
Draw
27.5%
Shamrock Rovers
49.0%
51
rhs 2.0
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