Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 38.02%. A win for Rennes had a probability of 37.61% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.57%) and 0-2 (5.67%). The likeliest Rennes win was 2-1 (8.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Monaco in this match.