Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vaasan Palloseura win with a probability of 43.59%. A win for HJK Helsinki had a probability of 30.54% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vaasan Palloseura win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.98%) and 2-0 (7.62%). The likeliest HJK Helsinki win was 0-1 (8.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vaasan Palloseura would win this match.

Result
Vaasan Palloseura	Draw	HJK Helsinki
43.59% ( 0.83)	25.86% ( 0.16)	30.54% ( -0.99)

Both teams to score 53.14% (

-0.96)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.11% (

-1.04)

50.89% (

1.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.23% (

-0.92)

72.77% (

0.92)

Vaasan Palloseura Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.77% (

-0.05)

23.23% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.86% (

-0.07)

57.14% (

0.08)

HJK Helsinki Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.23% (

-1.2)

30.77% (

1.2)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.96% (

-1.44)

67.04% (

1.44)

Score Analysis

Vaasan Palloseura 43.59%

HJK Helsinki 30.55%

Draw 25.86%

Vaasan Palloseura	Draw	HJK Helsinki
1-0 @ 10.43% ( 0.41) 2-1 @ 8.98% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 7.62% ( 0.29) 3-1 @ 4.37% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 3.71% ( 0.14) 3-2 @ 2.57% ( -0.08) 4-1 @ 1.59% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.35% ( 0.05) 4-2 @ 0.94% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.03% Total : 43.59%	1-1 @ 12.29% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 7.15% ( 0.29) 2-2 @ 5.29% ( -0.15) 3-3 @ 1.01% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.86%	0-1 @ 8.43% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 7.25% ( -0.19) 0-2 @ 4.97% ( -0.12) 1-3 @ 2.85% ( -0.17) 2-3 @ 2.08% ( -0.13) 0-3 @ 1.95% ( -0.12) Other @ 3.03% Total : 30.55%