Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 52.08%. A win for Nice had a probability of 24.69% and a draw had a probability of 23.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.57%) and 0-2 (7.65%). The likeliest Nice win was 2-1 (6.08%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.