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New York Red Bulls
Major League Soccer
Oct 26, 2023 at 12.30am UK
Red Bull Arena, Harrison
Charlotte FC

NY Red Bulls
5 - 2
Charlotte FC

Manoel (10', 37', 78'), Tolkin (26'), Barlow (56')
FT(HT: 3-0)
Vargas (49'), Agyemang (64')
Malanda (25'), Copetti (33')

Preview: New York Red Bulls vs. Charlotte FC - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Major League Soccer clash between New York Red Bulls and Charlotte FC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

With a spot in the opening phase of the MLS Cup playoffs at stake, the New York Red Bulls host Charlotte FC on Wednesday at Red Bull Arena in the wild card round.

Both sides earned 1-0 victories on Decision Day to claim the final two post-season spots in the Eastern Conference, with the Red Bulls defeating Nashville SC, while the Crown took care of Inter Miami.


Match preview

New York Red Bulls head coach Troy Lesesne looks on on October 1, 2023© Reuters

Seeing the Red Bulls in the playoffs seems like an old habit, however for a long time this season, that scenario seemed incredibly unlikely.

When Troy Lesesne took charge of this team in May in place of Gerhard Struber, they had just one win in their first 11 MLS fixtures, but thanks to four victories in their last five encounters, they are back in the post-season for a 14th successive campaign.

It took a 94th-minute penalty on Decision Day to get them above the playoff line as they ended the regular season with the second-fewest goals conceded in the Eastern Conference (39).

Their defensive shape was solid all year, but their attacking prowess not so much as the Red Bulls were tied for the third-fewest goals scored in the Eastern Conference during the regular season (36).

New York are used to being in the playoffs but winning at this stage has been a rarity for them, with the Red Bulls losing their last four post-season fixtures and going without a victory at this stage of a campaign since a 1-0 triumph over Atlanta United in 2018, though they were eliminated from that conference final 3-1 on aggregate.

In 2023, the Red Bulls only lost two games in the domestic campaign when scoring the opening goal, and just one at Red Bull Arena - versus FC Cincinnati in June (2-1).

Charlotte FC forward Kerwin Vargas (18) celebrates with midfielder Kamil Jozwiak (7) and forward Enzo Copetti (9) on April 15, 2023© Reuters

For the first time in club history, Charlotte are in the playoffs, thanks to a four-match domestic unbeaten run to end the regular season, including three victories.

Their ascent into the post-season is equally as remarkable as the Red Bulls', with the Crown winning just one of their first eight MLS fixtures this year while also incurring an eight-match winless run from May 31 to July 15.

Down the stretch of the 2023 regular season, Christian Lattanzio's men were virtually impenetrable on the back end though, posting three clean sheets in their final four encounters.

Thanks to their victory on Saturday, not only were the Crown able to sneak into the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, but they also set a new club record for the most points in a single MLS campaign (43), eclipsing the mark they set a year ago by a single point.

They struggled on the road for the most part over this domestic campaign, claiming just four victories, but picked up some valuable away points in the latter stages of the season, losing just one of their final three games as the visitors.

In three prior visits to Red Bull Arena Charlotte have never won, with their best result in Harrison coming this season when the Crown squandered a 2-0 half-time advantage and played to a 2-2 draw.

New York Red Bulls Major League Soccer form:

Charlotte FC Major League Soccer form:


Team News

New York Red Bulls midfielder Omir Fernandez (21) celebrates on September 24, 2023© Reuters

For this winner-takes-all showdown, the Red Bulls could be missing Cory Burke, who is dealing with a sore groin, Dante Vanzeir has an issue with his back, Lewis Morgan is out with a problem in his hip, while Hassan Ndam will not be available due to a thigh injury.

A 94th-minute penalty from John Tolkin on Saturday gave New York the victory, enabling them to leapfrog CF Montreal for a playoff berth with Carlos Coronel stopping four shots for his second successive clean sheet.

Elias Manoel has three goals in his career versus Charlotte, and he assisted on their first goal against them earlier this season scored by Vanzeir, with Cameron Harper levelling that match minutes later.

Vinicius Mello and Ben Bender are both doubtful for the Crown on Wednesday as they are dealing with a left knee and right lower leg injury, respectively.

A 13th-minute strike from Kerwin Vargas was enough to see Charlotte past Inter Miami this past weekend, while Kristijan Kahlina made three stops for his third clean sheet in his last four MLS affairs.

Bender has netted three times for them against the Red Bulls, notching a brace in their draw earlier this season, while he and Derrick Jones were on the mark in their only victory against them at home during the 2022 domestic campaign (2-0).

New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup:
Coronel; Duncan, D. Nealis, S. Nealis, Tolkin; Yearwood, Edelman, Amaya, Carmona; Luquinhas; Manoel

Charlotte FC possible starting lineup:
Kahlina; Byrne, Malanda, Tuiloma, Lindsey; Swiderski, Westwood, Bronico; Jozwiak, Copetti, Vargas


SM words green background

We say: New York Red Bulls 1-0 Charlotte FC

Home-field advantage and overall playoff experience should give the Red Bulls a slight edge on Wednesday, which we believe will propel them into the next round.

How to watch

You can watch New York Red Bulls vs. Charlotte FC and every MLS match this season live on Apple TV. Click here for more details on how to subscribe.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 55.1%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Charlotte FC had a probability of 21.02%.

The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.14%) and 2-1 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.35%), while for a Charlotte FC win it was 0-1 (6.63%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York Red Bulls would win this match.




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Game History

How you voted: NY Red Bulls vs Charlotte FC

New York Red Bulls
64.3%
Draw
14.3%
Charlotte FC
21.4%
14
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Inter Miami CF forward Josef Martinez (17) celebrates on October 5, 2023
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Eastern Conference

TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Inter MiamiInter Miami34228479493074
2Columbus Crew34199672403266
3FC CincinnatiCincinnati341851158481059
4Orlando City34157125950952
5Charlotte FCCharlotte FC34149114637951
6New York City FCNY City34148125449550
7New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls34111495550547
8CF MontrealMontreal341110134864-1643
9Atlanta UnitedAtlanta341010144649-340
10DC United341010145270-1840
11Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia34910156255737
12Toronto34114194061-2137
13Nashville SCNashville3499163854-1636
14New England RevolutionNew England3494213774-3731
15Chicago Fire3479184062-2230

Western Conference

TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Los Angeles FCLos Angeles34197863432064
2Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy34197869501964
3Real Salt LakeSalt Lake341611765481759
4Seattle SoundersSeattle34169951351657
5Houston DynamoHouston34159104739854
6Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd34157125849952
7Colorado RapidsColorado34155146160150
8Portland TimbersPortland341211116556947
9Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver34138135249347
10Austin FCAustin34119143948-942
11Dallas34118155456-241
12St Louis City34813135063-1337
13Sporting Kansas CityKansas3487195166-1531
14San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes3463254178-3721


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