Gameweek 17 in MLS will see a Western Conference showdown between New York Red Bulls and Orlando City at the Red Bull Arena on Sunday morning.
The hosts are currently in fourth place in the Eastern Conference standings with 26 points after 15 games, while the visitors are 11th with 17 points over the same period.
Match preview
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After a delay due to inclement weather, the New York Red Bulls began a two-match homestand against Charlotte in midweek and put in an excellent second-half performance, during which they scored three times to secure a 3-1 victory.
Captain Emil Forsberg opened the scoring in the 74th minute and and doubled his tally just two minutes later, marking his first career multi-goal MLS match, and now has four goals since arriving at the Red Bull Arena.
That result took the Red Bulls to nine matches without defeat at home across all competitions, and they have now gone unbeaten in their first six home matches to open a season for the first time since 2012.
Additionally, since the opening of Red Bull Arena back in 2010, NYRB have earned the most wins (137) and most points (464) in MLS, while also posting the most clean sheets (91) at home over that period.
However, while there are plenty of positives for new head coach Sandro Schwarz to build on, one area that he will need to address is his side's tendency to leak goals, as we saw again in midweek. The Red Bulls have already shipped 22 goals in 15 matches this season and have only managed one clean sheet in their last 10 league games.
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Meanwhile, in one of the more frustrating matches this season, Orlando City squandered a one-goal lead on the road and ended up drawing 1-1 with the struggling Chicago Fire at Soldier Field in their last outing.
The Lions scored early through Facundo Torres but were repeatedly exposed defensively throughout the 90 and ultimately conceded a very soft goal to Fire forward Hugo Cuypers in the second half. However, Orlando will feel a little hard done by the officials after what appeared to be a clear foul on Ivan Angulo in the penalty area late in the first half was not given.
Torres' goal was only his second in the league this season but moved him to second place on the Lions' career scoring list with 32 goals, surpassing Nani. Cyle Larin remains the leader with 44 goals.
While the Lions have only suffered one defeat in their last five league games, they have alternated between hitting the back of the net and failing to score during that run, and Oscar Pareja admitted last week that his side's poor attacking output this season is a cause for concern.
Despite this, the Orlando boss will be extremely pleased with his side's away record of late, as they are currently unbeaten in their last five on the road and have taken a total of 11 points from a possible 15 in that time.
Team News
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The Red Bulls are likely to be without as many five players for this match due to injury, including Cameron Harper, Ronald Donkor, Peter Stroud, Roald Mitchell and Serge Ngoma; Kyle Duncan is flagged as a doubt.
New York's top scorer and former Celtic striker Lewis Morgan has already netted nine goals in all competitions this season and will be eager to send a message to his national team manager Steve Clarke after being overlooked for Scotland's team selection for the upcoming Euros.
Robin Jansson returned from an injury to make his club-record 175th appearance for Orlando City against Chicago. However, he was shown his fifth yellow of the season in the match and will be suspended for this weekend's trip to New Jersey.
In terms of injuries, the Lions are expected to be without Mikey Halliday (knee), Duncan McGuire (shoulder) and Tahir Reid-Brown (thigh).
Nicolas Lodeiro has assisted five of Orlando's nine away goals this season, and his 38 career regular-season assists on the road is the most among active MLS players and seventh-most in MLS history.
New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup:
Coronel, Nealis, Reyes, Eile, Tolkin; Harper, Amaya, Edelman, Morgan, Forsberg, Manoel
Orlando City possible starting lineup:
Gallese; Thorhallsson, Brekalo, Schlegel, Cartagena, Lodeiro, Angulo, Araujo; Torres, Muriel, Ojeda
We say: New York Red Bulls 2-1 Orlando City
While Orlando City have avoided defeat in their last five league games, it is worth pointing out that all of those were against sides in the bottom half of the table in their respective Conferences.
They now face a much stronger opponent in the Red Bulls, who are unbeaten at Red Bull Arena this season, and we feel they will extend their home record with another win in this one.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Devesh Jaganath
