Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a DC United win with a probability of 52.13%. A win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 24.46% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a DC United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.67%) and 2-0 (8.55%). The likeliest New York Red Bulls win was 1-2 (6.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.