Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 45.37%. A win for Atalanta BC had a probability of 28.87% and a draw had a probability of 25.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.66%) and 2-0 (7.82%). The likeliest Atalanta BC win was 0-1 (8.18%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.