Two sides seeking a place in the knockout stage of the Asian Cup for the first time will square off on Monday as Tajikistan face Lebanon at Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium.

Heading into the final set of fixtures in Group A, both sides are tied for third with a single point after the Crowns lost 1-0 to Qatar in midweek, while the Lebanese played to a 0-0 draw with China.

Match preview

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Two matches into their first appearance at the Asian Cup, Tajikistan have shown they can compete with the experienced sides in this region.

Their missing ingredient at this tournament so far has been quality, failing to find the back of the net in their two matches despite creating their share of opportunities.

Although this tournament is a new experience for them, they have found success in other Asian competitions recently, capturing the King's Cup in 2022 while also winning the most recent Merdeka Tournament.

That should give Petar Segrt's men confidence heading into this pivotal match, where they will likely need three points to advance into the knockout stage.

A victory would not only be their first in this competition, but it would be enough to claim second place and an automatic berth in round 16 should China fail to triumph in their match with Qatar.

Since 2021, the Crowns have only lost one match when scoring the opening goal (5-1 to Uzbekistan in June 2023), while winning just once over that same stretch when conceding the opener (2-1 versus Trinidad and Tobago in September 2022).

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We saw a much tidier defensive performance from the Lebanese on matchday two, but like Tajikistan, their quality in the attacking third still needs to improve.

Lebanon have failed to find the back of the net in three successive matches in all competitions, though on Wednesday, they managed to keep the opposition off the scoresheet for the first time in their history at this tournament.

Coming into this match with the worst goal differential in Group A (-3), it goes without saying that a victory may be the only thing that keeps their Asian Cup hopes alive.

Four years ago, they saved their best match for last, winning 4-1 against North Korea, and a victory on Monday combined with a defeat or draw by China would guarantee they advance into the knockout stage for the first time.

It would be quite the redemption story for Miodrag Radulovic should he guide this team into the last 16 after the Montenegrin saw Lebanon miss the knockout stage in 2019 on nothing more than disciplinary rules.

The last time the Cedars failed to score in three successive encounters was at the 2023 Intercontinental Cup, when they were shut out in their final three games.

Team News

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Amadoni Kamolov will not be available to Tajikistan for this decisive fixture after being sent off late in the match against Qatar following a VAR check.

Captain Parvizdzhon Umarbayev and Ehson Panjshanbe are two caps away from reaching 50, while Mukhammadzhon Rakhimov remains on 49 after failing to feature on Wednesday.

Alisher Dzhalilov was in the starting 11 for a second successive fixture, with his brother Manuchekhr Dzhalilov still battling cancer, while goalkeeper Rustam Yatimov has conceded just one goal in this competition.

From matchday one to two, Radulovic made four changes to his Lebanese starting 11 with Khalil Khamis, Hasan Srour, Maher Sabra and Omar Chaaban coming into the lineup, replacing Robert Alexander Melki, Nassar Nassar, Walid Shour and Mohamad Haidar.

Haidar is now just nine appearances away from 100 with the national team, well behind captain and record cap holder Hassan Maatouk (118), while Nour Mansour has 67 caps for the Cedars, two fewer than Walid Ismail for seventh all-time.

Mostafa Matar can make his 25th appearance for the national team on Monday, with the Ahed goalkeeper collecting his first clean sheet of the competition on matchday two, stopping seven Chinese efforts.

Tajikistan possible starting lineup:
Yatimov; Safarov, Khanonov, Dzhuraboyev, Nazarov; Ayni, Umarbyev, Shukurov, Panjshanbe; Samiev, Dzhalilov

Lebanon possible starting lineup:
Matar; Khamis, Mansour, El Zein; Zein, Srour, Tneich, Haidar; Jradi; El-Helwe, Maatouk

We say: Tajikistan 1-1 Lebanon

While we expect a greater sense of urgency from both sides in this match, given the stakes, it is difficult to envision either having a decisive attacking edge.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.

Written by
Joel Lefevre

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