Toluca and Colorado Rapids will be looking to make it past the Leagues Cup last 16 when they go head-to-head at Estadio Nemesio Diaz on Wednesday.
The teams were both involved in exciting clashes in their respective round-of-16 encounters, and another entertaining affair could be on the cards here.
Match preview
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Having trailed heading into second-half stoppage time, Toluca snatched victory from the jaws of defeat in their penalty-shootout triumph over Houston Dynamo at the Shell Energy Stadium on Saturday.
Picking up where they left off in the group stages—with six points from a possible six following victories against Chicago Fire and Sporting Kansas City—Renato Paiva's men have now won three matches on the bounce against Major League Soccer opponents.
The victory last time out was also a seventh straight game across all competitions this term without defeat for Los Diablos Rojos, who will rely on their attacking momentum to get them over the line in Wednesday's knockout tie having scored the joint-most Leagues Cup goals (seven) so far.
Toluca now set out to avoid suffering the same fate as they did in last season's appearance at this competition, which ended in a narrow round-of-16 exit at the hands of Minnesota United.
However, Wednesday's hosts can draw confidence from claiming a comprehensive 4-1 win over their visitors en route to the aforementioned defeat when the sides faced off in the group stages.
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Colorado Rapids showed great resolve to recover from an early setback and see off the threat of Liga MX outfit Juarez courtesy of a 3-2 victory in Sunday's five-goal thriller at Dick's Sporting Goods Park.
Chris Armas's men, who kicked off their Leagues Cup campaign with a 4-0 thrashing against Portland Timbers, have since got themselves back on track heading into their last-16 tie.
The Pids suffered a disappointing group-stage exit in their maiden appearance at this competition last time out, where they came away empty-handed from both of their two outings.
With one of Club America or St Louis City waiting in the quarter-final, Wednesday's visitors make the trip in search of a third straight away win to keep their quest for continental cup glory alive.
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Team News
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Colorado Rapids' Daniel Chacon Salas is still battling with a knee injury and has not featured since returning from his loan spell at Alajuelense.
Adam Beaudry and Djordje Mihailovic both returned from international duty last time out and the latter, who found the back of the net against Juarez, is expected to start once again.
Rafael Navarro has directly been involved in three (one goal and two assists) of his side's four Leagues Cup goals so far, making the Brazilian one to keep an eye on.
Toluca's Jesus Angulo has netted in his last three matches leading up to Wednesday's contest, and the midfielder will be looking to deliver the goods once again.
Wanderson is out of contention for a fifth straight game through an injury which has seen him fail to make his official debut for the hosts since signing from Avai.
Twenty-five-year-old Ivan Lopez could be rewarded with a start here after coming off the bench to score not only a crucial equaliser, but also the winning penalty against Houston Dynamo.
Toluca possible starting lineup:
Volpi; Caprizo, Mendez, Luan, Gallardo; Baeza, Ruiz; Araujo, Vega, Angulo; Paulinho
Colorado Rapids possible starting lineup:
Steffen; Vines, Maxso, Abubakar, Rosenberry; Bassett, Ronan; Lewis, Mihailovic, Harris, Navarro
We say: Toluca 3-2 Colorado Rapids
While knockout ties can get cagey at times, Toluca and Colorado Rapids both showed no signs of holding back last time out, which bodes well for the potential entertainment value of Wednesday's meeting.
We are backing the hosts to make home advantage count and get the job done at the end of the 90 minutes.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 60.91%. A draw had a probability of 19.5% and a win for Colorado Rapids had a probability of 19.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.89%) and 3-1 (7.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.49%), while for a Colorado Rapids win it was 1-2 (5.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.
