Toronto can maintain their narrow advantage above the Eastern Conference playoff line in MLS with a victory against the Philadelphia Union on Saturday at BMO Field.
A 4-0 defeat to the Columbus Crew has the Reds clinging to the final post-season berth, with one win more than Atlanta United, while the Union are three points below that playoff line, following a 0-0 draw with the New York Red Bulls.
Match preview
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Somehow, Toronto are still holding down a playoff position in the East despite losing a sixth successive league contest last weekend.
If you include their Canadian Championship defeat to Forge on Wednesday (2-1), that losing run is at seven games, while they are winless in 10 consecutive matches across all competitions.
A team that showed so much promise at the beginning of the year appear to be fading, just two wins shy of matching their longest losing run from the previous regular season (eight).
John Herdman knew coming into this season that he would be facing a massive challenge, and he has seen the Reds' defensive issues from the past creep up a lot recently, with Toronto conceding multiple strikes in seven consecutive league contests.
Little has gone right for them in recent games, but Toronto still have five home victories in this competition, one more than they managed in 2023.
TFC have lost four domestic affairs in 2024 when scoring the opening goal, with three of those defeats occurring at BMO Field, and the Reds dropping 12 points from those four games.
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For years, the Union have been among the most consistent MLS sides during the regular season, but at the moment, it is not the kind of consistency anyone expected.
Since mid-June, Jim Curtin's men have consistently found ways to lose, suffering five defeats in their previous six domestic affairs.
Because of this, they are second from bottom in the East with 21 points, though they are just three points below the post-season line.
Perhaps the biggest surprise is how poor they have been defensively, conceding 39 goals, two fewer than they had allowed in 2023.
Their backline has been badly exposed away from home, conceding four goals in each of their previous four league games outside of Chester, and all of those fixtures ending in defeat.
They have not beaten the Reds at BMO Field since 2019 (2-1), losing three of their previous four visits to Toronto, including a 3-1 defeat last year.
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Team News
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In their defeat to Columbus, the Reds were missing Alonso Coello with a thigh injury, Tyrese Spicer has lower back issues and Brandon Servania is out for the year because of a ruptured ACL.
Deybi Flores is eligible to return from his yellow card suspension, though Richie Laryea and Jonathan Osorio will not be available, with Canada playing Uruguay in the Copa America third-place playoff on Saturday.
Shane O'Neill made his 50th MLS appearance for Toronto last weekend, and Kobe Franklin became the eighth TFC player to reach 50 caps across all competitions.
Philly did not have Jesus Bueno available against the Red Bulls after he hurt his ankle in their previous match, and Mikael Uhre was sidelined due to an adductor strain.
Alejandro Bedoya is questionable because of a sore quad, Andre Blake is still recovering from a knee injury and Isaiah LeFlore has a problem with his right knee.
Jose Martinez could be available this weekend after Venezuela were eliminated in the quarter-finals of the Copa America last Friday.
Toronto possible starting lineup:
Johnson; Rosted, Long, Gomis; Bernardeschi, Longstaff, Petretta, Thompson, Marshall-Rutty; Owusu, Insigne
Philadelphia Union possible starting lineup:
Rick; Harriel, Glesnes, Elliott, Lowe, Wagner; Flach, Gazdag, McGlynn; Donovan, Baribo
We say: Toronto 2-1 Philadelphia Union
The last few weeks have been disastrous for both clubs, but we are leaning towards the Reds, who have several of their veterans back in the fold, while the Union look lost, perhaps understandably so given the heavy rotations.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
