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Major League Soccer
Jun 30, 2024 at 12.30am UK
Stade Saputo
Philadelphia Union

Montreal
4 - 2
Philadelphia

Martinez (36'), Duke (56'), Yankov (89'), Ruan (90+2')
Ruan (90+4')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Sullivan (29'), Bueno (41')
Glesnes (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Major League Soccer clash between CF Montreal and Philadelphia Union, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Colorado 4-1 Montreal
Sunday, June 23 at 2.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Philadelphia 0-2 Charlotte FC
Sunday, June 23 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

We said: CF Montreal 1-0 Philadelphia Union

Both sides have been poor throughout the domestic campaign, but lately Montreal have shown they can earn results at home, which is why we are giving them a slight edge in this match. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CF Montreal win with a probability of 38.75%. A win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 36.32% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a CF Montreal win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.31%) and 2-0 (6.07%). The likeliest Philadelphia Union win was 1-2 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that CF Montreal would win this match.

Result
CF MontrealDrawPhiladelphia Union
38.75% (-0.0030000000000001 -0) 24.93% (-0.0010000000000012 -0) 36.32% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Both teams to score 57.96% (0.009999999999998 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.62% (0.014000000000003 0.01)45.38% (-0.012 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.28% (0.012 0.01)67.72% (-0.01100000000001 -0.01)
CF Montreal Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.78% (0.0039999999999907 0)23.22% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.87% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)57.12% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Philadelphia Union Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.49% (0.010999999999996 0.01)24.51% (-0.0089999999999968 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.02% (0.015000000000001 0.02)58.97% (-0.012999999999998 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    CF Montreal 38.75%
    Philadelphia Union 36.32%
    Draw 24.93%
CF MontrealDrawPhiladelphia Union
2-1 @ 8.53%
1-0 @ 8.31% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-0 @ 6.07% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-1 @ 4.15%
3-0 @ 2.95% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-2 @ 2.92% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-1 @ 1.52%
4-0 @ 1.08%
4-2 @ 1.07% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.16%
Total : 38.75%
1-1 @ 11.68%
2-2 @ 6% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-0 @ 5.69% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-3 @ 1.37% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 24.93%
1-2 @ 8.22% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-1 @ 8% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)
0-2 @ 5.63%
1-3 @ 3.85% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 2.81% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 2.64% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-4 @ 1.35%
2-4 @ 0.99% (0.001 0)
0-4 @ 0.93% (0.001 0)
Other @ 1.91%
Total : 36.32%

How you voted: Montreal vs Philadelphia

CF Montreal
57.9%
Draw
29.8%
Philadelphia Union
12.3%
57
Head to Head
Jun 2, 2024 12.30am
Philadelphia
2-2
Montreal
Gazdag (56' pen.), Uhre (58')
Gazdag (39')
Elliott (63')
Sunusi (1'), Piette (66')
Campbell (28'), Yankov (41')
Lassiter (45')
Jun 4, 2023 12.30am
Mar 18, 2023 11.30pm
Montreal
3-2
Philadelphia
Quioto (3' pen., 90+8'), Offor (90')
Uhre (46', 60')
Apr 23, 2022 8pm
Philadelphia
1-1
Montreal
Carranza (21' pen.)
Bedoya (55'), Andres Martinez (82'), Wagner (90+1')
Kamara (59')
Waterman (61'), Miller (90'), Bassong (90+3')
Mar 5, 2022 9pm
Gameweek 2
Montreal
1-2
Philadelphia
Lappalainen (32')
Kone (20'), Wanyama (23'), Zouhir (67')
Bedoya (53'), Gazdag (56')
Carranza (64')
Carranza (71')
rhs 2.0
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