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Major League Soccer
Jul 4, 2024 at 12.30am UK
BMO Field
Orlando City

Toronto
1 - 2
Orlando City

Etienne (5')
Petretta (63'), Flores (71'), O'Neill (75'), Insigne (90+5')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Ojeda (27'), Gomis (45' og.)
Cartagena (75'), Gallese (80'), Enrique (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Major League Soccer clash between Toronto and Orlando City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Atlanta 2-1 Toronto
Sunday, June 30 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: NY City 4-2 Orlando City
Saturday, June 29 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

We said: Toronto 2-2 Orlando City

Neither side have been very convincing on the back end or proven they can put a game to bed, which is why we project an exciting stalemate in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 42.72%. A win for Orlando City had a probability of 32.89% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.32%) and 2-0 (6.59%). The likeliest Orlando City win was 1-2 (7.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.

Result
TorontoDrawOrlando City
42.72% (0.923 0.92) 24.39% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02) 32.89% (-0.904 -0.9)
Both teams to score 59.13% (-0.221 -0.22)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.47% (-0.161 -0.16)43.53% (0.155 0.16)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.08% (-0.15799999999999 -0.16)65.92% (0.15300000000001 0.15)
Toronto Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.49% (0.349 0.35)20.51% (-0.355 -0.36)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47% (0.555 0.56)53% (-0.56 -0.56)
Orlando City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.39% (-0.613 -0.61)25.61% (0.607 0.61)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.51% (-0.838 -0.84)60.49% (0.832 0.83)
Score Analysis
    Toronto 42.72%
    Orlando City 32.89%
    Draw 24.38%
TorontoDrawOrlando City
2-1 @ 8.98% (0.098999999999998 0.1)
1-0 @ 8.32% (0.146 0.15)
2-0 @ 6.59% (0.186 0.19)
3-1 @ 4.74% (0.104 0.1)
3-0 @ 3.48% (0.135 0.14)
3-2 @ 3.23% (0.015 0.02)
4-1 @ 1.88% (0.061 0.06)
4-0 @ 1.38% (0.068 0.07)
4-2 @ 1.28% (0.019 0.02)
Other @ 2.84%
Total : 42.72%
1-1 @ 11.33%
2-2 @ 6.12% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04)
0-0 @ 5.25% (0.036 0.04)
3-3 @ 1.47% (-0.019 -0.02)
Other @ 0.22%
Total : 24.38%
1-2 @ 7.72% (-0.133 -0.13)
0-1 @ 7.15% (-0.077 -0.08)
0-2 @ 4.87% (-0.139 -0.14)
1-3 @ 3.51% (-0.123 -0.12)
2-3 @ 2.78% (-0.067 -0.07)
0-3 @ 2.21% (-0.103 -0.1)
1-4 @ 1.19% (-0.064 -0.06)
2-4 @ 0.95% (-0.04 -0.04)
Other @ 2.51%
Total : 32.89%

How you voted: Toronto vs Orlando City

Toronto
56.9%
Draw
21.6%
Orlando City
21.6%
51
Head to Head
Apr 28, 2024 12.30am
Orlando City
1-2
Toronto
McGuire (36')
McGuire (55'), Araujo (67'), Lodeiro (75'), Lodeiro (81')
Spicer (87'), Osei Owusu (90')
Gomis (11'), Osei Owusu (50'), Petretta (57'), Schlegel (90+3'), Johnson (90+3')
Oct 21, 2023 11.20pm
Jul 5, 2023 12.30am
Orlando City
4-0
Toronto
Araujo (16'), McGuire (22'), Dan Thor­halls­son (77'), Kara (84')
Gallese (62')

Coello (45+1'), Bernardeschi (47'), Petretta (80')
Bernardeschi (62')
Sep 18, 2022 12.30am
May 14, 2022 8pm
rhs 2.0
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