Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 82.62%. A draw had a probability of 11.2% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 6.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 3-0 with a probability of 10.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.38%) and 4-0 (8.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.15%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 1-2 (1.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
Result | ||
Benfica | Draw | Estoril Praia |
82.62% ( -0.04) | 11.22% ( 0.07) | 6.16% ( -0.04) |
Both teams to score 50.44% ( -0.64) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
73.06% ( -0.6) | 26.94% ( 0.6) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
52.58% ( -0.77) | 47.42% ( 0.76) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
95.23% ( -0.12) | 4.77% ( 0.12) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
80.71% ( -0.35) | 19.29% ( 0.35) |
Estoril Praia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
52.97% ( -0.61) | 47.03% ( 0.61) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
17.49% ( -0.47) | 82.51% ( 0.46) |
Score Analysis |
Benfica | Draw | Estoril Praia |
3-0 @ 10.53% ( 0.14) 2-0 @ 10.38% ( 0.22) 4-0 @ 8.01% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 7.95% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 7.84% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 6.83% ( 0.2) 4-1 @ 6.04% ( -0.07) 5-0 @ 4.88% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 3.68% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 3% ( -0.06) 6-0 @ 2.47% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 2.28% ( -0.07) 6-1 @ 1.87% ( -0.05) 5-2 @ 1.39% ( -0.05) 7-0 @ 1.08% ( -0.02) Other @ 4.4% Total : 82.61% | 1-1 @ 5.15% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 2.96% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 2.24% ( 0.08) Other @ 0.87% Total : 11.22% | 1-2 @ 1.94% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 1.69% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.52% Total : 6.16% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 96 | 29 | 67 | 90 |
2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 80 |
3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 72 |
4 | Braga | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 63 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 55 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 54 | 50 | 4 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 37 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 36 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 33 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 33 |
15 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 32 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 72 | -33 | 32 |
R | Vizela | 34 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 36 | 66 | -30 | 26 |
R | ChavesChaves | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 23 |
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