Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 67.3%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Perth Glory had a probability of 13.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.64%) and 1-2 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.06%), while for a Perth Glory win it was 1-0 (4.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
Result | ||
Perth Glory | Draw | Melbourne City |
13.59% ( -0.15) | 19.12% ( -0.03) | 67.3% ( 0.18) |
Both teams to score 50.71% ( -0.34) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.89% ( -0.23) | 42.11% ( 0.23) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.49% ( -0.23) | 64.51% ( 0.23) |
Perth Glory Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
57.34% ( -0.37) | 42.66% ( 0.37) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
20.99% ( -0.32) | 79.01% ( 0.32) |
Melbourne City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.44% ( -0.02) | 11.56% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
63.5% ( -0.04) | 36.5% ( 0.04) |
Score Analysis |
Perth Glory | Draw | Melbourne City |
1-0 @ 4.2% 2-1 @ 3.86% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 1.79% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.18% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 1.1% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.46% Total : 13.59% | 1-1 @ 9.06% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.93% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 4.17% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.96% Total : 19.12% | 0-2 @ 11.48% ( 0.11) 0-1 @ 10.64% ( 0.11) 1-2 @ 9.78% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 8.26% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 7.03% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 4.45% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 3.79% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 3% ( -0.04) 0-5 @ 1.92% ( 0.01) 1-5 @ 1.64% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.62% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.69% Total : 67.29% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 27 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 49 | 27 | 22 | 55 |
2 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 27 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 53 |
3 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 27 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 43 | 33 | 10 | 42 |
4 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 52 | 41 | 11 | 41 |
5 | Macarthur | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 41 |
6 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 38 | 12 | 39 |
7 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 37 |
8 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 52 | 53 | -1 | 32 |
9 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 30 |
10 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 28 |
11 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 26 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 46 | 69 | -23 | 22 |
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