Austin FC will hope that the third time is lucky for them when they host the Seattle Sounders in Week Four of the Major League Soccer regular season on Sunday at Q2 Stadium in the Texas capital.
In what is their sophomore campaign, the Texans are tied for third in the Western Conference despite losing their first match of the year last week, 1-0 to the Portland Timbers, while the Rave Green collected their first points of the MLS campaign a week ago, defeating the Los Angeles Galaxy 3-2.
Match preview
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The schedule makers were smiling on the Verde-and-Black when the 2022 MLS fixtures were released, and Josh Wolff and his team have taken advantage, blowing away their first two opponents by a score of 5-0 and 5-1.
Against the Timbers, it was a different story, as the lowest-scoring side from 2021 failed to register a single shot on target in what was a chippy affair with 31 total fouls committed and eight cautions.
Despite that defeat, Austin were still able to make some history, as their current +8 goal differential is the best in MLS history, evening the mark set by the Chicago Fire (1999) and Atlanta United (2017) at this stage of the campaign.
While their offensive output has been a revelation, scoring against the side that conceded the fewest goals in the regular season a year ago (Seattle) will be a tall task.
They are in a solid position to begin this campaign, but Austin will be out to make a statement that they can beat the elite teams in this league, and not just the mediocre ones.
Coming into this contest, the Verde-and-Black have lost only once in their previous seven matches played in the Texas capital, and they have played the former two-time MLS Cup champs tough, drawing 0-0 in Seattle and narrowly losing their home fixture to them last year, 1-0.
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A year ago, the Sounders looked unbeatable through the early portion of the regular season, but so far in 2022, wins have been hard to come by for this Pacific Northwest team.
On Thursday, they got the job done in the CONCACAF Champions League (CCL), drawing Leon 1-1 to advance into the Semi-Finals of that competition by an aggregate score of 4-1.
As Seattle continue searching for their first international trophy, Brian Schmetzer and his team will shift their focus to the domestic campaign over the next few weeks.
Heading into this match, the Sounders find themselves in an unfamiliar position, currently sitting on the outside of the playoff picture with three points from three games.
Last weekend, the Rave Green won a back-and-forth contest at Lumen Field, in what looked like a heavyweight fight, between two sides trading blows, and ultimately Seattle came out on top, despite having only 36% of the possession.
That was the 200th victory all-time for this franchise in MLS regular season play, as they became the fastest team in league history to achieve that milestone, getting it done in their 432nd game.
Seattle won nine matches last year by a single goal, though they have not been as fortunate in 2022, losing their opening two fixtures to Nashville SC and Real Salt Lake by a 1-0 score.
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Team News
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Offseason signing Ruben Gabrielsen made his full debut for the Verde-and-Black last weekend, as the Norwegian played the full 90 minutes, while Diego Fagundez needs to play at least 77 minutes on Sunday to become the 89th player in MLS history to play 20,000 career minutes.
Austin loaned defender Freddy Kleemann to Birmingham Legion FC, while goalkeeper Will Pulisic will finish the year at North Carolina FC in the USL.
Wolff made only one change to his starting 11 against the Timbers, as Gabrielsen was inserted into the backline, replacing Kipp Keller, while Sebastian Driussi was held off the scoresheet for the first time this season, as he has three goals so far this year, one behind Lucas Zelarayan for the Golden Boot.
Sounders striker Fredy Montero has been on a tear lately, scoring four times in his last three matches in all competitions, including their only goal in a draw against Leon in the CCL this week, while Xavier Arreaga notched the winner in their victory over LA, with fewer than 20 minutes to play.
Just like a season ago, the list of injuries on Seattle is long, with Josh Atencio suffering from a right quad strain, Jimmy Medranda is recovering from a left hamstring strain, while the right hamstring of their leading scorer from last season, Raul Ruidiaz, is not 100%.
Andrew Thomas has a right calf strain, Will Bruin is questionable with the same issue and Nicolas Lodeiro could miss out with a right adductor strain.
Austin FC possible starting lineup:
Stuver; Kolmanic, Gabrielsen, Cascante, Lima; Gallagher, Ring; Dominguez, Driussi, Fagundez; Urruti
Seattle Sounders possible starting lineup:
Frei; A. Roldan, Andrade, Arreaga, Tolo; Baker-Whiting, Paulo; C. Roldan, Rusnak, Morris; Montero
We say: Austin FC 2-1 Seattle Sounders
Despite their hot start to the campaign, Austin know that they have to beat the strong sides in this league to earn respect, and Sunday will provide them with the opportunity to do just that.
Playing at home has given them a decided edge of late, scoring 15 goals in their last four regular-season matches played at Q2 Stadium.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austin FC win with a probability of 49.29%. A win for Seattle Sounders had a probability of 26.46% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Austin FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.54%) and 2-0 (8.26%). The likeliest Seattle Sounders win was 0-1 (6.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood.
