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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 63.99%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for Hertha Berlin had a probability of 16.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.91%) and 1-0 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.28%), while for a Hertha Berlin win it was 1-2 (4.51%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
Result | ||
Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | Hertha Berlin |
63.99% ( -0.04) | 19.84% ( 0) | 16.17% ( 0.03) |
Both teams to score 54.82% ( 0.05) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
60.04% ( 0.03) | 39.96% ( -0.03) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
37.68% ( 0.03) | 62.32% ( -0.03) |
Bayer Leverkusen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.17% ( -0) | 11.82% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
62.92% ( -0) | 37.07% |
Hertha Berlin Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.18% ( 0.06) | 37.82% ( -0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.41% ( 0.05) | 74.59% ( -0.06) |
Score Analysis |
Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | Hertha Berlin |
2-0 @ 10.19% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.91% 1-0 @ 9.55% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 7.25% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 7.05% ( 0) 4-0 @ 3.87% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 3.76% 3-2 @ 3.43% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.83% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.65% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.61% Other @ 3.88% Total : 63.99% | 1-1 @ 9.28% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.82% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.47% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.11% ( 0) Other @ 0.16% Total : 19.84% | 1-2 @ 4.51% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 4.35% 0-2 @ 2.11% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.56% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.46% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.17% Total : 16.17% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 32 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 82 | 23 | 59 | 84 |
2 | Stuttgart | 33 | 22 | 4 | 7 | 74 | 39 | 35 | 70 |
3 | Bayern MunichBayern | 32 | 22 | 3 | 7 | 90 | 41 | 49 | 69 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 33 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 75 | 37 | 38 | 64 |
5 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 32 | 17 | 9 | 6 | 64 | 40 | 24 | 60 |
6 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 33 | 11 | 13 | 9 | 49 | 48 | 1 | 46 |
7 | Freiburg | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 44 | 56 | -12 | 42 |
8 | Hoffenheim | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 56 | 64 | -8 | 40 |
9 | Heidenheim | 33 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 46 | 54 | -8 | 39 |
10 | Augsburg | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 39 |
11 | Werder Bremen | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 44 | 53 | -9 | 39 |
12 | Wolfsburg | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 37 |
13 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 56 | 63 | -7 | 34 |
14 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 32 | 7 | 12 | 13 | 41 | 65 | -24 | 33 |
15 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 33 | 8 | 6 | 19 | 31 | 57 | -26 | 30 |
16 | Mainz 05Mainz | 32 | 5 | 14 | 13 | 33 | 50 | -17 | 29 |
17 | FC Koln | 33 | 5 | 12 | 16 | 27 | 56 | -29 | 27 |
R | SV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt | 32 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 30 | 76 | -46 | 17 |
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