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Bundesliga | Gameweek 26
Apr 1, 2023 at 2.30pm UK
Red Bull Arena
Mainz logo

RB Leipzig
0 - 3
Mainz


Kampl (37'), Olmo (65'), Orban (65')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Ingvartsen (9'), Ajorque (57'), Kohr (67')
Caci (61'), Ingvartsen (64'), Hanche-Olsen (65')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between RB Leipzig and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Mainz 1-1 Freiburg
Sunday, March 19 at 6.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: RB Leipzig 2-1 Mainz 05

Leipzig have been extremely consistent at the Red Bull Arena during Rose's tenure, and we expect them to deliver another home victory to potentially move into the top four on Saturday. However, Mainz have proven tough to beat throughout the majority of Svensson's two-year reign, and this weekend's meeting with Die Roten Bullen should prove no different even if they may fall short in the end. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 61.87%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 17.72%.

The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.67%) and 1-0 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.49%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-2 (4.87%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.

Result
RB LeipzigDrawMainz 05
61.87% (-0.186 -0.19) 20.4% (0.076999999999998 0.08) 17.72% (0.107 0.11)
Both teams to score 56.29% (-0.055 -0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.34% (-0.17599999999999 -0.18)39.66% (0.175 0.18)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.99% (-0.183 -0.18)62.01% (0.184 0.18)
RB Leipzig Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.68% (-0.10599999999999 -0.11)12.32% (0.105 0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
61.88% (-0.222 -0.22)38.12% (0.221 0.22)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.2% (0.013999999999996 0.01)35.8% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.42% (0.015999999999998 0.02)72.57% (-0.016999999999996 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    RB Leipzig 61.87%
    Mainz 05 17.72%
    Draw 20.4%
RB LeipzigDrawMainz 05
2-1 @ 9.93% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-0 @ 9.67%
1-0 @ 9.24% (0.038 0.04)
3-1 @ 6.93% (-0.025 -0.03)
3-0 @ 6.75% (-0.027 -0.03)
4-1 @ 3.63% (-0.029 -0.03)
3-2 @ 3.56% (-0.012 -0.01)
4-0 @ 3.53% (-0.029 -0.03)
4-2 @ 1.86% (-0.014 -0.01)
5-1 @ 1.52% (-0.018 -0.02)
5-0 @ 1.48% (-0.018 -0.02)
Other @ 3.77%
Total : 61.87%
1-1 @ 9.49% (0.042 0.04)
2-2 @ 5.1% (0.0040000000000004 0)
0-0 @ 4.41% (0.036 0.04)
3-3 @ 1.22% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 20.4%
1-2 @ 4.87% (0.024 0.02)
0-1 @ 4.53% (0.038 0.04)
0-2 @ 2.33% (0.021 0.02)
2-3 @ 1.75% (0.002 0)
1-3 @ 1.67% (0.0090000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 2.58%
Total : 17.72%

How you voted: RB Leipzig vs Mainz

RB Leipzig
86.7%
Draw
10.0%
Mainz 05
3.3%
60
Head to Head
Oct 8, 2022 2.30pm
Jan 8, 2022 2.30pm
RB Leipzig
4-1
Mainz
Silva (21' pen., 61'), Szoboszlai (47'), Nkunku (58')
Jae-sung (57')
Jae-sung (16'), Bell (59')
Hack (19')
Aug 15, 2021 2.30pm
Jan 23, 2021 2.30pm
Mainz
3-2
RB Leipzig
Niakhate (24', 35'), Barreiro (50')
Niakhate (40'), da Costa (75')
Adams (15'), Halstenberg (30')
Halstenberg (23'), Adams (70'), Orban (88'), Sorloth (90+2')
Sep 20, 2020 2.30pm
RB Leipzig
3-1
Mainz
Forsberg (17' pen.), Poulsen (21'), Haidara (51')
Poulsen (64')
Mateta (48')
Mateta (30'), Latza (58')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CBayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen32266082235984
2Stuttgart33224774393570
3Bayern MunichBayern32223790414969
4RB Leipzig33197775373864
5Borussia DortmundDortmund32179664402460
6Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt33111394948146
7Freiburg33119134456-1242
8Hoffenheim32117145664-840
9Heidenheim33912124654-839
10Augsburg33109144958-939
11Werder Bremen33109144453-939
12Wolfsburg32107154051-1137
13Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach33713135663-734
14VfL BochumVfL Bochum32712134165-2433
15Union BerlinUnion Berlin3386193157-2630
16Mainz 05Mainz32514133350-1729
17FC Koln33512162756-2927
RSV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt3238213076-4617


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