Copa del Rey | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg
Feb 7, 2024 at 8.30pm UK
Estadio Civitas Metropolitano
Atletico0 - 1Athletic Bilbao
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Real Madrid 1-1 Atletico
Sunday, February 4 at 8pm in La Liga
Sunday, February 4 at 8pm in La Liga
Last Game: Athletic Bilbao 4-0 Mallorca
Friday, February 2 at 8pm in La Liga
Friday, February 2 at 8pm in La Liga
We said: Atletico Madrid 2-1 Athletic Bilbao
Atletico have gone over a year without losing a competitive game at the Metropolitano, and having won 11 of their last 13 home matches against Athletic, we think that the hosts will do enough to claim a narrow victory in the first leg of the semi-final tie. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 40.8%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 32.58% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (7.26%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 (9.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.65%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
40.8% ( -0.31) | 26.61% ( 0.11) | 32.58% ( 0.21) |
| Both teams to score 51.57% ( -0.29) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
