Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 74.47%. A draw had a probability of 15.3% and a win for Metz had a probability of 10.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.15%) and 3-0 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.05%), while for a Metz win it was 1-2 (3.06%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Paris Saint-Germain would win this match.
Result | ||
Paris Saint-Germain | Draw | Metz |
74.47% ( -0.55) | 15.29% ( 0.55) | 10.23% ( -0.01) |
Both teams to score 53.68% ( -2.48) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
67.26% ( -2.97) | 32.73% ( 2.97) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
45.58% ( -3.51) | 54.41% ( 3.5) |
Paris Saint-Germain Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
92.55% ( -0.78) | 7.45% ( 0.78) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
73.21% ( -2.07) | 26.79% ( 2.07) |
Metz Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
58% ( -2.17) | 41.99% ( 2.17) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
21.57% ( -1.94) | 78.42% ( 1.94) |
Score Analysis |
Paris Saint-Germain | Draw | Metz |
2-0 @ 10.54% ( 0.81) 2-1 @ 9.15% ( 0.19) 3-0 @ 9.13% ( 0.34) 1-0 @ 8.12% ( 0.93) 3-1 @ 7.93% ( -0.17) 4-0 @ 5.93% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 5.15% ( -0.33) 3-2 @ 3.44% ( -0.29) 5-0 @ 3.08% ( -0.14) 5-1 @ 2.67% ( -0.29) 4-2 @ 2.23% ( -0.29) 6-0 @ 1.33% ( -0.12) 5-2 @ 1.16% ( -0.21) 6-1 @ 1.16% ( -0.18) Other @ 3.44% Total : 74.47% | 1-1 @ 7.05% ( 0.43) 2-2 @ 3.97% ( -0.16) 0-0 @ 3.13% ( 0.47) 3-3 @ 0.99% ( -0.15) Other @ 0.15% Total : 15.29% | 1-2 @ 3.06% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 2.71% ( 0.27) 0-2 @ 1.18% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.12) Other @ 2.13% Total : 10.23% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 31 | 20 | 10 | 1 | 76 | 29 | 47 | 70 |
2 | MonacoMonaco | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 62 | 42 | 20 | 61 |
3 | Brest | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 49 | 33 | 16 | 57 |
4 | Lille | 32 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 48 | 31 | 17 | 55 |
5 | Nice | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 36 | 25 | 11 | 51 |
6 | Lens | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 42 | 34 | 8 | 49 |
7 | Lyon | 32 | 14 | 5 | 13 | 46 | 54 | -8 | 47 |
8 | Rennes | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 51 | 43 | 8 | 45 |
9 | Marseille | 31 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 47 | 38 | 9 | 44 |
10 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 40 |
11 | Toulouse | 32 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 39 | 42 | -3 | 40 |
12 | Reims | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 40 |
13 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 35 | 47 | -12 | 36 |
14 | NantesNantes | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 29 | 49 | -20 | 33 |
15 | Le HavreLe Havre | 32 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 33 | 42 | -9 | 32 |
16 | Metz | 32 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 34 | 54 | -20 | 29 |
17 | Lorient | 32 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 37 | 63 | -26 | 26 |
18 | Clermont | 32 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 26 | 54 | -28 | 25 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |