Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chicago Fire win with a probability of 54.88%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for CF Montreal had a probability of 21.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chicago Fire win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.05%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.36%), while for a CF Montreal win it was 0-1 (6.64%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chicago Fire would win this match.
Result | ||
Chicago Fire | Draw | CF Montreal |
54.88% ( -0.11) | 23.89% ( -0.05) | 21.24% ( 0.16) |
Both teams to score 50.81% ( 0.36) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50.14% ( 0.38) | 49.86% ( -0.38) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.15% ( 0.34) | 71.85% ( -0.34) |
Chicago Fire Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.95% ( 0.1) | 18.05% ( -0.1) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
51.05% ( 0.17) | 48.95% ( -0.17) |
CF Montreal Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62% ( 0.37) | 38% ( -0.37) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.23% ( 0.36) | 74.77% ( -0.36) |
Score Analysis |
Chicago Fire | Draw | CF Montreal |
1-0 @ 11.74% ( -0.14) 2-0 @ 10.05% ( -0.09) 2-1 @ 9.73% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 5.74% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 5.55% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 2.69% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 2.46% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.38% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.15% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.4% Total : 54.87% | 1-1 @ 11.36% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.86% ( -0.11) 2-2 @ 4.71% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.96% Total : 23.89% | 0-1 @ 6.64% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 5.5% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 3.21% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.77% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 1.52% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 1.04% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.57% Total : 21.24% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 20 | 15 | 28 |
2 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 27 |
3 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 24 | 19 | 5 | 23 |
4 | New York City FCNY City | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 20 |
5 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 20 |
6 | Toronto | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 19 |
7 | Columbus Crew | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 18 |
8 | DC United | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 17 |
9 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 22 | 21 | 1 | 14 |
10 | Nashville SCNashville | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 14 |
11 | Orlando City | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 13 |
12 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 12 |
13 | CF MontrealMontreal | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 12 |
14 | Chicago Fire | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 10 |
15 | New England RevolutionNew England | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 7 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 25 |
2 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 21 |
3 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 21 |
4 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 21 |
5 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 19 |
6 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 19 |
7 | Houston DynamoHouston | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 18 |
8 | Austin FCAustin | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 17 |
9 | St Louis City | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 16 |
10 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 13 |
11 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 11 |
12 | Dallas | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 11 |
13 | Portland TimbersPortland | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 10 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 10 |