We said: Southampton 1-1 Chelsea
Although Chelsea came through with three points at the weekend, they had to work with 10 men for over an hour. Also taking their less recovery time into consideration, we are backing Southampton to earn a share of the spoils, potentially even maximum points if they are more ruthless in the final third.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 68.15%. A draw had a probability of 18.3% and a win for Southampton had a probability of 13.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.75%) and 0-1 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.6%), while for a Southampton win it was 2-1 (3.88%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood.