Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 49.53%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Portimonense had a probability of 25.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.42%) and 2-0 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.02%), while for a Portimonense win it was 0-1 (7.68%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Moreirense would win this match.
Result | ||
Moreirense | Draw | Portimonense |
49.53% ( -1.54) | 25.29% ( 0.12) | 25.18% ( 1.42) |
Both teams to score 51.14% ( 1.06) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
48.29% ( 0.69) | 51.7% ( -0.69) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.52% ( 0.6) | 73.48% ( -0.59) |
Moreirense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.11% ( -0.37) | 20.89% ( 0.37) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.4% ( -0.59) | 53.6% ( 0.59) |
Portimonense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.64% ( 1.64) | 35.36% ( -1.64) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.88% ( 1.67) | 72.12% ( -1.67) |
Score Analysis |
Moreirense | Draw | Portimonense |
1-0 @ 11.56% ( -0.46) 2-1 @ 9.42% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 9.06% ( -0.47) 3-1 @ 4.91% ( -0.09) 3-0 @ 4.73% ( -0.3) 3-2 @ 2.56% ( 0.07) 4-1 @ 1.92% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 1.85% ( -0.14) 4-2 @ 1% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.52% Total : 49.53% | 1-1 @ 12.02% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 7.39% ( -0.21) 2-2 @ 4.89% ( 0.19) Other @ 0.98% Total : 25.28% | 0-1 @ 7.68% ( 0.13) 1-2 @ 6.25% ( 0.31) 0-2 @ 3.99% ( 0.24) 1-3 @ 2.17% ( 0.2) 2-3 @ 1.7% ( 0.14) 0-3 @ 1.38% ( 0.14) Other @ 2.01% Total : 25.18% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 96 | 29 | 67 | 90 |
2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 80 |
3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 72 |
4 | Braga | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 63 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 55 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 54 | 50 | 4 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 37 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 36 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 33 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 33 |
15 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 32 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 72 | -33 | 32 |
R | Vizela | 34 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 36 | 66 | -30 | 26 |
R | ChavesChaves | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 23 |
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