Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 69.49%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Lecce had a probability of 11.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 0-2 with a probability of 13.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (13.51%) and 0-3 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.09%), while for a Lecce win it was 1-0 (4.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.
Result | ||
Lecce | Draw | Napoli |
11.16% ( -0.01) | 19.35% ( 0.05) | 69.49% ( -0.03) |
Both teams to score 42.63% ( -0.18) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.04% ( -0.23) | 48.96% ( 0.23) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.95% ( -0.21) | 71.05% ( 0.21) |
Lecce Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
48.98% ( -0.17) | 51.02% ( 0.17) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
14.65% ( -0.11) | 85.35% ( 0.11) |
Napoli Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.04% ( -0.08) | 12.96% ( 0.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
60.56% ( -0.16) | 39.44% ( 0.16) |
Score Analysis |
Lecce | Draw | Napoli |
1-0 @ 4.45% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 3.06% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 1.5% ( -0) Other @ 2.16% Total : 11.16% | 1-1 @ 9.09% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.61% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 3.13% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.52% Total : 19.35% | 0-2 @ 13.8% ( 0.05) 0-1 @ 13.51% ( 0.09) 0-3 @ 9.4% ( 0) 1-2 @ 9.29% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 6.33% ( -0.03) 0-4 @ 4.8% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 3.23% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.13% ( -0.02) 0-5 @ 1.96% ( -0.01) 1-5 @ 1.32% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.09% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.62% Total : 69.49% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Inter Milan | 36 | 29 | 5 | 2 | 86 | 19 | 67 | 92 |
2 | AC Milan | 36 | 22 | 8 | 6 | 72 | 43 | 29 | 74 |
3 | Bologna | 36 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 51 | 27 | 24 | 67 |
4 | Juventus | 36 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 49 | 28 | 21 | 67 |
5 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 35 | 19 | 6 | 10 | 65 | 39 | 26 | 63 |
6 | Roma | 36 | 17 | 9 | 10 | 63 | 44 | 19 | 60 |
7 | Lazio | 36 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 47 | 37 | 10 | 59 |
8 | Fiorentina | 35 | 15 | 8 | 12 | 53 | 40 | 13 | 53 |
9 | Napoli | 36 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 53 | 46 | 7 | 51 |
10 | Torino | 36 | 12 | 14 | 10 | 33 | 32 | 1 | 50 |
11 | Genoa | 36 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 43 | 44 | -1 | 46 |
12 | Monza | 36 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 45 |
13 | Lecce | 36 | 8 | 13 | 15 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 37 |
14 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 36 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 48 | -14 | 34 |
15 | Udinese | 36 | 5 | 18 | 13 | 35 | 52 | -17 | 33 |
16 | CagliariCagliari | 36 | 7 | 12 | 17 | 38 | 65 | -27 | 33 |
17 | FrosinoneFrosinone | 36 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 43 | 68 | -25 | 32 |
18 | Empoli | 36 | 8 | 8 | 20 | 26 | 52 | -26 | 32 |
19 | SassuoloSassuolo | 36 | 7 | 8 | 21 | 42 | 72 | -30 | 29 |
R | Salernitana | 36 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 28 | 76 | -48 | 16 |
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