With their playoff hopes hanging by a thread, the Miami Dolphins return home to Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday to battle the Green Bay Packers.
Miami currently hold the final playoff position in the AFC despite losing three straight games, while the Cheeseheads are a game behind the Washington Commanders for a postseason berth in the NFC.
Match preview
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The result may not have gone the way Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins were hoping for last Saturday, but the Miami head coach saw plenty of encouraging signs from his offence in its 32-29 defeat to the Buffalo Bills, things that had not been as evident in their previous two defeats.
They scored over 30 points for the first time since a 39-17 triumph over the Cleveland Browns in mid-November, averaging 7.1 yards per play and collecting over 400 total yards for the first time since that aforementioned victory versus Cleveland.
Had they been a little tougher defensively in past encounters, the Dolphins could be in a better position to claim the AFC East, with Miami allowing 24.6 points per game and conceding over 400 yards to their opponents in consecutive affairs.
Pass coverage has been a recurring issue for them in 2022, with the Finns allowing a 98.2 rating, including 24 TDs through the air, tied for 26th in the NFL.
Lucky for them, two of their final three regular-season encounters will take place in South Beach, where Miami are 5-1 on the year, scoring a combined 69 points in their previous two outings.
They are fifth in the league offensively, racking up an average of 370.4 yards a game while sitting third in passing, putting up 273.6 yards per contest.
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Green Bay have stepped it up defensively, allowing fewer than 20 points in their previous two outings, putting themselves back in the playoff conversation.
That, however was against two teams near the bottom of many statistical categories offensively in the Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Rams.
Their secondary will face some stiff tests in the coming weeks, going up against three teams (Miami, the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions) who are in the top 10 regarding passing this season.
Matt LaFleur's team will have their hands full against a pair of dynamic Miami pass catchers, but the Packers head coach has some reasons to be optimistic, with Green Bay holding wide receivers to an 89.7 rating on the year with nine interceptions.
Putting forth a solid pass rush will also be key, and that is something that the Packers improved upon tremendously versus LA.
They sacked Baker Mayfield five times and hit him on nine occasions less than a week after failing to get to Justin Fields once but still defeating the Chicago Bears.
Offensively, they have put themselves in more manageable second and third down situations, averaging over five yards per play in their last three games and converting nearly 50% of the third downs they have faced in the past two encounters.
They have run for over 100 yards in six of their last seven ball games but have not beaten an AFC team away from home in over a year.
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Team News
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Tua Tagovailoa looked more like the Dolphins QB we saw through much of 2022 last Saturday, posting a rating of 104.0, Jaylen Waddle had three catches for 114 yards, including his first touchdown since Week 10, Tyreek Hill had the other TD catch as he now has one in three consecutive encounters and Raheem Mostert ran for 136 yards on 17 carries, hitting the century mark for only the second time this year.
Kader Kohou led them in tackles with seven, Jaelan Phillips and Zach Sieler had a sack each, while Jason Sanders made all three of his field goals versus the Bills, as he has not missed a kick in his last five contests.
Elijah Campbell took part in practice all week despite a previous concussion and Jevon Holland could be out due to some pain in his neck.
River Cracraft has a calf strain, and Terron Armstead has several issues, including a toe/pectoral and knee injury.
Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander will likely be tasked with containing Hill or Waddle, and he has been exceptional all year, holding wideouts to a rating below 70, Aaron Jones averaged 5.3 yards a carry in their victory over LA, Christian Watson made four grabs for 46 yards, while Aaron Rodgers threw for over 200 yards for the first time since a 27-17 defeat to the Tennessee Titans in November.
Preston Smith posted a pair of sacks on Monday, Rasul Douglas had an interception plus six tackles, while Kingsley Enagbare and Quay Walker each picked up a sack.
Keisean Nixon was limited at practice this week with a groin strain, Elgton Jenkins has a sore knee, Rudy Ford is questionable with an injured knee/wrist, while Krys Barnes seems to be fully recovered from his hand issue.
Head To Head
The Dolphins lead the overall series against the Packers, going 10-5, but Green Bay have emerged victorious in the previous two encounters, the last time being in 2018 when Davante Adams caught a pair of touchdown throws from Rodgers and Aaron Jones ran for a third-quarter score.
Green Bay also won the previous encounter in Miami 27-24 in 2014 as Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Andrew Quarless all had touchdown grabs.
The last time Miami beat the Packers was four years earlier in a 23-20 OT thriller when Dan Carpenter booted three field goals, and Chad Henne threw a touchdown pass to Anthony Fasano and Davone Bess.
We say: Miami Dolphins 31-24 Green Bay Packers
Miami look much more comfortable on their home field and should grow in confidence from how they performed against one of the Super Bowl favourites, the Buffalo Bills, in less-than-ideal conditions.
Green Bay have not made it easy on opposing offences, but they have not been tested in the secondary for weeks, and slowing down a receiver like Hill has been something no one has been able to do all season.
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