Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 48.65%. A win for Erzgebirge Aue had a probability of 27.39% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.26%) and 0-2 (7.84%). The likeliest Erzgebirge Aue win was 2-1 (6.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.23%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.