Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 40.05%. A win for Erzgebirge Aue had a probability of 34.46% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.66%) and 0-2 (6.59%). The likeliest Erzgebirge Aue win was 1-0 (8.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.