Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 42.25%. A win for Jahn Regensburg had a probability of 32.52% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.92%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest Jahn Regensburg win was 0-1 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.