Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Werder Bremen win with a probability of 54.93%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Erzgebirge Aue had a probability of 21.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Werder Bremen win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.84%) and 2-0 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.93%), while for a Erzgebirge Aue win it was 0-1 (6.07%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Werder Bremen would win this match.