Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ilves win with a probability of 56.85%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for TPS had a probability of 19.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ilves win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.59%) and 2-1 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.17%), while for a TPS win it was 0-1 (6.4%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ilves would win this match.