Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Haka win with a probability of 48.2%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for KTP had a probability of 24.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Haka win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.62%) and 1-2 (8.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.63%), while for a KTP win it was 1-0 (8.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Haka would win this match.