Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 47.75%. A win for Western United had a probability of 28.12% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.22%) and 2-0 (7.7%). The likeliest Western United win was 1-2 (6.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Western United |
| 47.75% | 24.13% | 28.12% |
| Both teams to score 57.36% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.31% | 44.68% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.95% | 67.05% |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.17% | 18.83% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.72% | 50.28% |
| Western United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.67% | 29.33% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.7% | 65.3% |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Western United |
| 2-1 @ 9.44% 1-0 @ 9.22% 2-0 @ 7.7% 3-1 @ 5.26% 3-0 @ 4.28% 3-2 @ 3.22% 4-1 @ 2.19% 4-0 @ 1.79% 4-2 @ 1.35% Other @ 3.3% Total : 47.75% | 1-1 @ 11.31% 2-2 @ 5.79% 0-0 @ 5.52% 3-3 @ 1.32% Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.13% | 1-2 @ 6.94% 0-1 @ 6.78% 0-2 @ 4.16% 1-3 @ 2.84% 2-3 @ 2.37% 0-3 @ 1.7% Other @ 3.35% Total : 28.12% |