Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Preliminary Round | 1st Leg
Mar 20, 2024 at 7pm UK
Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi
Somalia0 - 3Eswatini
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Somalia 0-1 Uganda
Tuesday, November 21 at 1pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa
Tuesday, November 21 at 1pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa
Last Game: Eswatini 0-2 Cape Verde
Tuesday, November 21 at 2.15pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa
Tuesday, November 21 at 2.15pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa
We said: Somalia 0-2 Eswatini
While both these sides reside in the lower echelons of the region's rankings, Eswatini have played significantly more football in recent times and have managed a few notable results, including holding Burkina Faso and South Africa to draws while beating Namibia all within the last year. We feel they will be too good for Somalia in this one. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Eswatini win with a probability of 77.76%. A draw had a probability of 15.5% and a win for Somalia had a probability of 6.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Eswatini win was 0-2 with a probability of 15.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (13.85%) and 0-3 (12.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.11%), while for a Somalia win it was 1-0 (3.1%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Eswatini would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Somalia | Draw | Eswatini |
6.69% ( 0.44) | 15.55% ( 0.7) | 77.76% ( -1.14) |
| Both teams to score 36.09% ( 0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
