Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guinea win with a probability of 53.28%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Malawi had a probability of 21.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guinea win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.62%) and 2-1 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.97%), while for a Malawi win it was 0-1 (7.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Guinea in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Guinea.
