Atlanta United welcome DC United to the Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Saturday for a mid-table clash in the MLS Eastern Conference.
The hosts sit seventh in the table, just two positions and one point below their opponents in what could be a crucial match for both sides' playoff hopes.
Match preview
© Reuters
Atlanta have been on a charge since the start of August, racing up the table courtesy of six wins in their last seven games.
The latest of those came on Wednesday in an emphatic 4-0 victory at home against struggling FC Cincinnati.
Atlanta's newest signing Luiz Araujo scored his first goal for the club after just five minutes, before Josef Martinez added a brace and Ezequiel Barco put the finishing touch on a great performance with five minutes remaining.
Gonzalo Pineda has been in charge of the Five Stripes for just over a month now and is clearly witnessing the "more vertical, fast and fluid game, built on quick passing" that he said he was aiming for upon his appointment.
That is an aggregate score of 7-0 in their previous two games, and Pineda's men will be high on confidence as they head into a game where a victory could cement their place in the top seven.
© Reuters
After a brief blip in August, DC United have also produced some good results in the last few weeks.
They were quite fortunate to come away with a draw against the New York Red Bulls - where the referee controversially awarded DC a penalty for a debatable handball after a VAR check - but there was no luck involved in a comfortable 3-0 win during the week.
Hernan Losada's side took on the Chicago Fire at home, and a first-half hat-trick for Ola Kamara - his first for the club - sealed the victory early on.
DC will be looking to get revenge after their previous meeting with Atlanta, less than a month ago, saw an 82nd-minute Marcelino Moreno goal steal all three points for the other United.
Despite being seemingly evenly-matched, the pair never seem to draw, having each won three of their previous six meetings.
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
- W
- L
- L
- L
- W
- D
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Atlanta will have Santiago Sosa back, the Argentine having served his suspension for an accumulation of yellow cards in the game against Cincinnati.
Martinez, Miles Robinson and Ronald Hernandez all returned from international duty in time for that game - with the first two starting - and, considering the strong result, they will surely retain their places in the XI.
Emerson Hyndman is out for the year with a torn ACL, though, and Franco Ibarra is not yet fully healed from his lower-body injury.
DC have more injury worries than their hosts - Adrien Perez and Brendan Hines-Ike are long-term absences with a broken ankle and hip respectively, whilst Chris Odoi-Atsem remains out with a muscle issue and Nigel Robertha is listed as doubtful.
Andy Najar returned to the starting lineup for the first time since August 28 against Chicago, but it remains to be seen if Losada thinks he did enough to remain in the team.
Atlanta United possible starting lineup:
Guzan; Campbell, Franco, Robinson; Lennon, Sosa, Mulraney, Torres; Lopez, Martinez, Barco
DC United possible starting lineup:
Kempin; Paredes, Alfaro, Birnbaum, Pines; Reyna, Asad, Felipe; Arriola, Kamara, Yow
We say: Atlanta United 2-2 DC United
This is a tough one to call, with both teams certainly having the potential to win.
Despite the two sides' seeming inability to produce a draw in the past, we think it is the most likely outcome here, and expect there to be goals on the way.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 56.29%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for DC United had a probability of 19.63%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.85%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.4%), while for a DC United win it was 0-1 (6.76%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atlanta United would win this match.
