Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lithuania win with a probability of 43.45%. A win for Latvia had a probability of 34.07% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lithuania win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.04%) and 0-2 (5.48%). The likeliest Latvia win was 2-1 (7.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.59%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.
