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Bournemouth logo
Championship | Gameweek 25
Dec 30, 2021 at 7.45pm UK
Dean Court
Cardiff City logo

Bournemouth
3 - 0
Cardiff

Christie (25'), Solanke (68'), Smithies (83' og.)
Solanke (45+3')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Harris (27'), Nelson (45+3')
Bacuna (45+2')

Preview: Bournemouth vs. Cardiff City - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Championship clash between Bournemouth and Cardiff City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Bournemouth will be aiming to extend their lead at the top of the Championship table when they host lowly Cardiff City on Thursday evening.

The Cherries are currently one point ahead of second-place Fulham and four ahead of third-place Blackburn Rovers, having played a game more than both teams.


Match preview

Bournemouth's Lloyd Kelly celebrates scoring their third goal with teammates on October 23, 2021© Reuters

As Fulham's fixture against Reading on Wednesday is postponed, Bournemouth have the chance to end the calendar year four points clear at the Championship summit.

With a clash against struggling Peterborough United to come on January 3, this is a big chance for the Cherries to build some momentum following a tricky period.

Scott Parker's side ended a six-match winless run with a 1-0 victory over Queens Park Rangers on Monday, with Dominic Solanke's header just before half time proving decisive.

Bournemouth were also 1-0 winners against Cardiff earlier in the campaign with Philip Billing the goalscorer on that occasion.

Despite leading the way in the second tier, the Cherries actually only rank seventh in the division for points picked up at home this season.

Cardiff City's Curtis Nelson reacts after scoring an own goal on September 28, 2021© Reuters

Therefore this could be an intriguing battle as visitors Cardiff have registered 15 of their 22 points this season away from home and are unbeaten in their last four matches on the road.

The Bluebirds are currently 20th in the Championship table, three points above the relegation zone with a game in hand over 22nd-place Peterborough United.

The Welsh side's last two fixtures have been postponed, meaning they have not played since a 2-2 draw away at Birmingham City on December 11 when Mark McGuinness scored a 91st-minute equaliser.

Since the permanent appointment of Steve Morison as manager seven weeks ago, Cardiff have taken seven points from a possible 15.

Only Peterborough (44) have conceded more goals than the Bluebirds (39) in the Championship this season; the only clean sheet they have kept was against Blackpool in August.

Bournemouth Championship form:
  • D
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • W

Cardiff City Championship form:
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • D



Team News

Bournemouth manager Scott Parker before the match on September 11, 2021© Reuters

Lloyd Kelly missed Bournemouth's win over QPR after testing positive for COVID-19, but Scott Parker hopes to have the defender back available.

Steve Cook was left out of the matchday squad at Loftus Road as a January exit could be on the cards, so he is likely to be absent again.

Junior Stanislas has endured an injury-hit campaign and started for only the second time this season on Monday, putting in an impressive performance; he should keep his place depending on how well he has recovered.

Cardiff trained on Monday for the first time in 10 days after a COVID-19 outbreak affected the first team squad.

Captain Sean Morrison is available again after serving a one-match suspension, but there is no guarantee he will go straight back into the starting lineup.

Will Vaulks and Mark Harris are pushing for starts after making an impact as substitutes against Birmingham nearly three weeks ago.

Bournemouth possible starting lineup:
Travers; Stacey, Cahill, Kelly, Zemura; L. Cook, Lerma; Christie, Billing, Stanislas; Solanke

Cardiff City possible starting lineup:
Smithies; McGuinness, Flint, Nelson; Ng, Vaulks, Ralls, Giles; Colwill, Harris; Moore


SM words green background

We say: Bournemouth 2-1 Cardiff City

Bournemouth's win over QPR will have given the Cherries a much-needed confidence boost and they will be keen to build on those three points. Cardiff have shown plenty of fighting spirit under Steve Morison so will be hard to beat, but a lack of match fitness after an enforced break could cost the Bluebirds.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a home win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home Win:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bournemouth win with a probability of 55.55%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Cardiff City had a probability of 20.52%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bournemouth win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.38%) and 2-1 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.37%), while for a Cardiff City win it was 0-1 (6.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bournemouth would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Bournemouth vs Cardiff

Bournemouth
83.5%
Draw
8.3%
Cardiff City
8.3%
133
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