Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chapecoense win with a probability of 42.68%. A win for Ceara had a probability of 29.7% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chapecoense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.53%) and 2-0 (8.14%). The likeliest Ceara win was 0-1 (9.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.