Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Coritiba win with a probability of 38.03%. A win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 31.23% and a draw had a probability of 30.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Coritiba win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.67%) and 2-1 (7.18%). The likeliest Vasco da Gama win was 0-1 (12.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (13.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Coritiba in this match.
