A tough run of luck with injuries and a recent lack of goals means that Corinthians should start as outsiders - particularly away at the Maracana. Therefore, Flu can grasp their chance to close the gap between the teams down to just two points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 49.22%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Corinthians had a probability of 23.81%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.91%) and 2-1 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.54%), while for a Corinthians win it was 0-1 (8.8%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fluminense would win this match.

Result
Fluminense	Draw	Corinthians
49.22% ( 0.38)	26.96% ( -0.02)	23.81% ( -0.37)

Both teams to score 45.11% (

-0.29)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.09% (

-0.2)

58.91% (

0.19)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.6% (

-0.15)

79.4% (

0.15)

Fluminense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.94% (

0.09)

24.06% (

-0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.67% (

0.13)

58.33% (

-0.14)

Corinthians Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.4% (

-0.46)

40.6% (

0.45)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.8% (

-0.41)

77.2% (

0.41)

Score Analysis

Fluminense 49.22%

Corinthians 23.81%

Draw 26.96%

Fluminense	Draw	Corinthians
1-0 @ 13.91% ( 0.14) 2-0 @ 9.91% ( 0.13) 2-1 @ 8.94% ( 0) 3-0 @ 4.71% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 4.24% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.91% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.68% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 1.51% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.41% Total : 49.22%	1-1 @ 12.54% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 9.77% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 4.03% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.62% Total : 26.96%	0-1 @ 8.8% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 5.65% ( -0.08) 0-2 @ 3.97% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 1.7% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 1.21% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 1.19% ( -0.04) Other @ 1.28% Total : 23.81%