Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 36.68%. A win for Santos had a probability of 32.9% and a draw had a probability of 30.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.25%) and 2-1 (7.15%). The likeliest Santos win was 0-1 (12.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fortaleza would win this match.