Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 46.48%. A win for Atletico Mineiro had a probability of 27.52% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.15%) and 2-0 (8.5%). The likeliest Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 (8.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.36%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.