Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Koln win with a probability of 37.73%. A win for Arminia Bielefeld had a probability of 35.03% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Koln win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.13%) and 2-0 (6.76%). The likeliest Arminia Bielefeld win was 0-1 (10.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that FC Koln would win this match.