Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mbabane Swallows win with a probability of 37.63%. A win for Ferroviario Beira had a probability of 34.37% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mbabane Swallows win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.94%) and 2-0 (6.97%). The likeliest Ferroviario Beira win was 0-1 (10.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Mbabane Swallows in this match.