Champions League | First Qualifying Round | 1st Leg
Jul 12, 2023 at 3pm UK
Astana Arena
Astana1 - 1Dinamo Tbilisi
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Paide 1-2 Dinamo Tbilisi (6-5 pen.)
Thursday, July 14 at 5pm in Europa Conference League
Thursday, July 14 at 5pm in Europa Conference League
We said: Astana 1-1 Dinamo Tbilisi
With the second leg scheduled for next week, both sides will likely approach the first leg with caution, so we expect Astana and Dinamo Tbilisi to play out a cagey draw on Wednesday. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Astana win with a probability of 42.76%. A win for Dinamo Tbilisi had a probability of 32.02% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Astana win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.97%) and 2-0 (7.07%). The likeliest Dinamo Tbilisi win was 0-1 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
| Result | ||
| Astana | Draw | Dinamo Tbilisi |
42.76% ( 0.27) | 25.22% ( -0.07) | 32.02% ( -0.2) |
| Both teams to score 55.91% ( 0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
