Despite winning just one of their last 19 away games in the Champions League, PSV are unbeaten in six games against French clubs, including on their trip to Paris Saint-Germain on matchday three where they drew 1-1, and against weaker opposition, they will be fancied to take all three points, given their superb recent form.
Only Barcelona have managed to get the better of Brest in Europe this season, but a run of form that has seen them now lose five of their last seven games suggests Roy's side are starting to suffer with the demands of European football.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 59.37%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Brest had a probability of 19.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.77%) and 0-2 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.06%), while for a Brest win it was 2-1 (5.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.
0.13) 
-0.21) 
