MX23RW : Wednesday, January 22 01:10:48| >> :60:1250:1250:
Champions League header

Champions League
HJK logo
Champions League | First Qualifying Round | 1st Leg
Jul 12, 2023 at 5pm UK
Bolt Arena
Larne

HJK Helsinki
1 - 0
Larne

Radulovic (3' pen.)
Tenho (28')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Bolger (31'), Cosgrove (46'), Want (89'), Donnelly (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between HJK Helsinki and Larne, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

HJK Helsinki

All competitions
Last Game: HJK Helsinki 0-1 Lahti
Saturday, July 8 at 12pm in Finnish Veikkausliiga

Larne

All competitions
Last Game: Coleraine 3-0 Larne
Saturday, April 29 at 5.30pm in NIFL Premiership

We said: HJK Helsinki 2-1 Larne

 Despite carrying poor form into this match, HJK Helsinki's experience at this level could be telling in this first leg. The visitors will relish this opportunity, and while securing a win may be too much of an ask in Finland, we fancy that they will give an excellent account of themselves and will get on the scoresheet, which will set up the second leg very nicely. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HJK Helsinki win with a probability of 58.14%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Larne had a probability of 19.31%.

The most likely scoreline for a HJK Helsinki win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.27%) and 2-1 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.7%), while for a Larne win it was 0-1 (5.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for HJK Helsinki in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for HJK Helsinki.

Result
HJK HelsinkiDrawLarne
58.14% (0.042000000000002 0.04) 22.54% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04) 19.31% (-0.010000000000002 -0.01)
Both teams to score 52.05% (0.105 0.1)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.28% (0.146 0.15)46.71% (-0.152 -0.15)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.02% (0.138 0.14)68.98% (-0.143 -0.14)
HJK Helsinki Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.23% (0.062999999999988 0.06)15.76% (-0.068 -0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.11% (0.12 0.12)44.89% (-0.126 -0.13)
Larne Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.79% (0.076000000000001 0.08)38.2% (-0.080999999999996 -0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.03% (0.071000000000002 0.07)74.96% (-0.079000000000008 -0.08)
Score Analysis
    HJK Helsinki 58.13%
    Larne 19.31%
    Draw 22.53%
HJK HelsinkiDrawLarne
1-0 @ 11.12% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
2-0 @ 10.27% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-1 @ 9.89% (0.0039999999999996 0)
3-0 @ 6.33% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-1 @ 6.09% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.93% (0.014 0.01)
4-0 @ 2.92% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
4-1 @ 2.81% (0.015 0.02)
4-2 @ 1.35% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
5-0 @ 1.08% (0.006 0.01)
5-1 @ 1.04% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 2.3%
Total : 58.13%
1-1 @ 10.7% (-0.020000000000001 -0.02)
0-0 @ 6.02% (-0.039 -0.04)
2-2 @ 4.76% (0.012 0.01)
3-3 @ 0.94% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 22.53%
0-1 @ 5.8% (-0.024 -0.02)
1-2 @ 5.15% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-2 @ 2.79% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
1-3 @ 1.65% (0.004 0)
2-3 @ 1.53% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 2.4%
Total : 19.31%

How you voted: HJK Helsinki vs Larne

HJK Helsinki
73.1%
Draw
11.9%
Larne
14.9%
67
rhs 2.0
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