We said: Panathinaikos 1-1 Braga (Braga win 3-2 on aggregate)
Needing to cling onto a slender advantage at a stadium where Panathinaikos are seldom outclassed, an injury to Al-Musrati is exactly what the doctor did not order for Braga, who may have to adopt a more cautious approach with the Libyan absent.
Jorge's difference-makers in the final third can still create something out of nothing if needed, and while most of Panathinaikos' big-hitters are well-rested, a low-scoring draw will suffice for the Archbishops.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 39.17%. A win for Panathinaikos had a probability of 34.11% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.4%) and 0-2 (6.91%). The likeliest Panathinaikos win was 1-0 (9.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.7%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Braga in this match.