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Champions League
PAOK
Champions League | Third Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg
Aug 13, 2024 at 6.30pm UK
Stadio Toumbas
Malmo

PAOK
3 - 4
Malmo

Taison (21'), Koulierakis (43'), Zivkovic (45+4')
Sastre (37'), Lucescu (38'), Rahman (66'), Murg (90+4'), Koulierakis (100'), Koulierakis (120')
FT
(aet)
Nanasi (10', 45'), Zatterstrom (90+7'), Christiansen (99')
Berg Johnsen (62'), Jansson (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between PAOK and Malmo, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

PAOK

All competitions
Champions League
Last Game: Jagiellonia 0-1 Bodo/Glimt
Wednesday, August 7 at 7.45pm in Champions League
Next Game: APOEL vs. Slovan Bratislava
Tuesday, August 13 at 6pm in Champions League

Malmo

All competitions
Champions League
Last Game: Halmstad 0-1 Malmo
Saturday, August 10 at 2pm in Swedish Allsvenskan
Next Game: APOEL vs. Slovan Bratislava
Tuesday, August 13 at 6pm in Champions League

We say: PAOK 1-2 Malmo (Malmo win 4-3 on aggregate)

 This is a really tough match to call, and it would not be a surprise to see it go all the way to penalties. Malmo have so much talent in the final third of the field, though, and we are backing the Swedish outfit to secure a narrow win and book their spot in the playoff stage of the Champions League. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malmo win with a probability of 54%. A win for PAOK had a probability of 23.36% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Malmo win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.16%) and 0-2 (8.53%). The likeliest PAOK win was 2-1 (6.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Malmo would win this match.

Result
PAOKDrawMalmo
23.36% (-2.669 -2.67) 22.63% (-0.606 -0.61) 54% (3.273 3.27)
Both teams to score 57.71% (-0.898 -0.9)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.94% (0.16399999999999 0.16)42.06% (-0.167 -0.17)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.53% (0.165 0.16)64.46% (-0.167 -0.17)
PAOK Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.33% (-2.073 -2.07)31.67% (2.071 2.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.92% (-2.45 -2.45)68.08% (2.448 2.45)
Malmo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.46% (1.21 1.21)15.54% (-1.212 -1.21)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.52% (2.207 2.21)44.48% (-2.208 -2.21)
Score Analysis
    PAOK 23.36%
    Malmo 54%
    Draw 22.63%
PAOKDrawMalmo
2-1 @ 6.06% (-0.508 -0.51)
1-0 @ 5.66% (-0.378 -0.38)
2-0 @ 3.25% (-0.421 -0.42)
3-1 @ 2.32% (-0.343 -0.34)
3-2 @ 2.16% (-0.219 -0.22)
3-0 @ 1.25% (-0.244 -0.24)
Other @ 2.66%
Total : 23.36%
1-1 @ 10.53% (-0.25 -0.25)
2-2 @ 5.64% (-0.226 -0.23)
0-0 @ 4.92% (-0.037 -0.04)
3-3 @ 1.34% (-0.077 -0.08)
Other @ 0.2%
Total : 22.63%
1-2 @ 9.81% (0.173 0.17)
0-1 @ 9.16% (0.304 0.3)
0-2 @ 8.53% (0.615 0.62)
1-3 @ 6.09% (0.348 0.35)
0-3 @ 5.29% (0.579 0.58)
2-3 @ 3.5% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
1-4 @ 2.83% (0.269 0.27)
0-4 @ 2.46% (0.358 0.36)
2-4 @ 1.63% (0.069 0.07)
1-5 @ 1.06% (0.139 0.14)
0-5 @ 0.92% (0.165 0.17)
Other @ 2.73%
Total : 54%

How you voted: PAOK vs Malmo

PAOK
60.5%
Draw
15.1%
Malmo
24.4%
86
Head to Head
Aug 7, 2024 7.45pm
Third Qualifying Round 1st Leg
Jagiellonia
0-1
Bodo/Glimt

Nene (69'), Moutinho (90+4')
Dieguez (58' og.)
Moe (73')
rhs 2.0
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